hysical Therapy Workforce in the United States : orecasting Nationwide Shortages

P 2 c bjective: To examine current and future physical therapy (PT) job surplus/shortage rends across the United States. esign: Forecast models and grading methodology previously published for nursing were sed to evaluate individual state PT job shortages from 2008 to 2030. etting: Not applicable. articipants: Not applicable. ethods: The forecast model used to project PT job supply and demand accounted for hanges in age and population size on the basis of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau for ach of the 50 states. PT shortages were assigned letter grades on the basis of shortage ratios difference between demand and supply per 10,000 people) to evaluate PT shortages and escribe the changing PT workforce in each state. esults: On the basis of current trends, demand for PT services will outpace the supply of Ts within the United States. Shortages are expected to increase for all 50 states through 030. By 2030, the number of states receiving below-average grades for their PT shortages ill increase from 12 to 48. States in the Northeast are projected to have the smallest hortages, whereas states in the south and west are projected to have the largest shortages. onclusion: These data serve to provide health professionals, policy makers, and stakeolders with a means of assessing current and future PT needs. Discussion of the issues urrounding PT shortages and ongoing assessment of supply and demand must ensue to itigate projected shortages. Although our model has several limitations and may be versimplified, it is the first attempt to use available, creditable data to examine both supply nd demand for the entire country. Follow-up studies that use more complex modeling are eeded to adequately forecast future trends beyond that accomplished in the current article. onitoring trends over time is critical to maintain an appropriate balance between PT upply and demand that meets the population needs. PM R 2010;2:1021-1029